Another Lebanon?
According to Israel HaYom’s English edition of 21 November 2018 (http://tinyurl.com/ybefj3p4), Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan, a member of the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet, says Israel may have to retake Gaza "until we eliminate terrorist infrastructure"
While hardly any Israeli would be sad to see Hamas obliterated, what can replace it?
Not Abu Mazen’s PLO that flip-flops on its relationship with Israel more than Benjamin Netanyahu flip-flops on settlements. The Gazans allowed Hamas to run the PLO out of the Strip.
Not Islamic Brotherhood, as bad for Israel and probably for Gazens, too, as Hamas.
Egypt won’t step it.
IF ISRAEL PUTS AN END to Hamas it will be “stuck” in Gaza trying to govern a people who for decades have been indoctrinated that the only good Israeli – or Jew – is a dead Israeli (or Jew).
What about the UN?
The UN is in bed with Hamas. It teaches hatred of Israel in its schools. It allows Hamas to use its facilities to launch rockets and mortars into Israel.
The UN is not capable of guiding Gaza toward peace with either Israel or Egypt.
Perhaps — just “perhaps” — given the improved relations with several Muslim-dominated countries, a coalition of Islamic nations no longer intent on driving the Jews to the sea could be invited to govern Gaza until the locals can create a viable, and acceptable to Israel, political infrastructure.
Israel could, and I suggest should, help the interim governors by loosening trade restrictions (both ways) and making it easier for Gazans to travel to Europe and other Muslim states – but NOT to PLO-controlled areas. (The PLO still harbors jihadists and its leader-for-life cannot be depended upon to honor yesterday’s agreements,)
Having a perhaps multi-national Muslim government in Gaza sans Israeli military presence would go a long way to “normalizing” relations with Gaza’s neighbors (Israel and Egypt). The government would need to be the same flavor of Islam as the residents of Gaza. (Iraq is a great example or NONcooperation between various Muslim sects.)
Don’t expect Gazans, especially young Gazans, to welcome Israeli tourists with open arms (at least they won’t be firearms); It took a while for Israelis to be “just another tourist” in Egypt and, even after all the years since Begin and Sadat met in Jerusalem, some tension still exists, but there is progress.
Gazans must learn that they cannot destroy whatever is left behind when a caretaker government is succeeded by a true Gazan government, unlike what happened when Sharon threw Israelis out in 2005 — the Muslims destroyed hot houses and other infrastructure that could have provided the Strip with a growing foreign trade.
The greatest risk Israel faces if it invades and deposes Hamas (and the Brotherhood standing in the wings) is to leave a vacuum that quickly will filled with anarchy.
Compare Gaza to Iraq — the allies defeated Saddam but failed to put a caretaker government in place to rule the country until a new government of Iraqis could be installed.
Compare Gaza to Germany. When Germany was defeated, the World War 2 Allies, sans the Soviet Union, established a German caretaker government that today rules a unified country. (The Soviets set up a puppet government in what was “East Germany.” Eventually that government fell and “East” Germany as absorbed into what was then “West” Germany.)
Unlike Iran under the shah, Gaza lacks a shadow government, even one in exile. When the shah was chased out, the ayatollah hiding out in Europe came back much like DeGaulle returned to Paris. (Whether the Iranians now regret his return is another matter.)
Invading Gaza sans a solid plan to install a Muslim caretaker government would be both foolish, a waste of Israeli lives, and a waste of time.
Lacking a Muslim caretaker government will allow a new Hamas to take over and nothing will be gained for Israel or the denizens of the Strip.
BOTTOM LINE: Israel needs to line up friendly Muslims to govern Gaza BEFORE it even draws up invasion plans.
It also needs to prepare its “hasbarah” (PR) to counter the howls of the world’s leftists who undoubtedly will castigate Israel for preventing Hamas, et al, to continue killing and maiming innocent Israelis.
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