LIBEREALS LOVE IT, REALISTS ACCEPT IT, HAREDIM REJECT IT
“IT” is a “two state solution” to the Israel/”Falistinian” problem.
“IT” is “complicated.”
“IT” requires cooperation from Jordan and Egypt and support from the more pragmatic Muslim nations (e.g., those afraid of Iran).
“IT” in reality is a THREE (3) state “solution."
“IT” won’t work until Hamas and Abu Mazen & friends stop attacking Israel.
FIRST AND FOREMOST, a “two state solution’ is NOT a solution. There are at least five (5) entities involved:
1. Israel
2. Egypt
3. Jordan
4. Abu Mazen’s “Palestinian Authority”
5. Hamas’ Aza (Gaza)
Why politicians — U.S. and otherwise — insist on an unworkable “two-state solution” is beyond this scrivener’s ken. It ignores the reality on the ground.
WHAT DOES A “STATE” NEED?
Consider what a viable state (nation, country) needs.
Access to “the world”
To import raw materials
To export finished products
To permit residents and visitors access/egress
Productive organizations (that EXCLUDES “government”) to employ its populace and pay taxes to support the non-productive organizations (e.g., government)
The so-called “Palestinian Authority” lacks ALL of the above save for the non-productive government.
It effectively is land-locked. It lacks both functioning airport and seaport; the only way it can get to either is via Israel. It also lacks a direct (not via Israel) land corridor to Jordan and its air and sea ports as well as access to Syria and Saudi Arabia, two potential trading partners.
Aza, on the other hand, DOES have access to the sea and it does have — albeit now in disrepair — the Arafat International Airport.
There are, according to Wikipedia, four airports in PA or Hamas controlled territory.
Two are in Hamas’ Aza:
Yasser Arafat International Airport in Rafah once had flights to several Muslim countries, including Egypt and Jordan. The IAF closed it in 2000 in retaliation for attacks on Israeli civilians originating in Aza.
Gush Katif dates back to WW 2 and was once Aza's northern airport.
In 2004, the airfield was in a good state of repair. The runway was kept clear, and runway markings were maintained. Following the handover to the Palestinian authorities along with the rest of Gush Katif, the airstrip was no longer maintained. It became partially covered by sand and reduced from a width of 75 ft to approximately 30 ft of usable tarmac, and the 225 ft overrun and backtracking loop at the northwest end became blocked with sand. By 2014, it was clear from aerial imagery that expansion of UNRWA Khan Younis, including a sewage treatment plant constructed on the former runway threshold, made it entirely unusable.
Atarot Airport -- built where the Jewish settlement of Atarot was located before the British leveled it and its fields for airport expansion. The airport is located near Jerusalem and Ramallah; it was closed by Israel to civilian traffic after the breakout of the Second Intifada in 2001.
Before its closure, Atarot accommodated international flights.
Muqeible Airfield is an abandoned military airfield located in the northern West Bank, approximately 1 km southwest of the village of Muqeible, and 3 km north of Jenin. The airfield consists of two crumbling concrete runways.
Even if the airports were repaired, Israel cannot permit their use since they would be used by the PA and Hamas to bring in materials to murder Israeli civilians. The only way Israel can tolerate use of these airports is to control all flights in and out. This cannot happen if Hamas’ Aza and the PA become states; the UN — with its proven role in Aza as a supplier of terrorist hiding places and its role in teaching hate for Israel and Jews in UN schools — cannot be trusted to honestly monitor flights into (and out of) these airports.
If Hamas had used the concrete imported to rebuild the area to rebuild, rather than to build more tunnels into Israel and Egypt, the Arafat International could have been repaired; if Hamas would stop killing Israeli civilians, it might be able to have limited use of the airport.
Israel has established peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan.
It is possible that an Egyptian army presence at the Aza airfields to control what comes in and what goes out, and a Jordanian presence at the airstrips located in the PA territory to do the same thing might be acceptable to Israel, the PA, and Hamas; however, given Hamas’ attacks on Egyptians, it is not likely Egyptian soldiers would be welcomed in Aza.
THE ROAD TO JORDAN
The PA needs direct access to Jordan.
The map shows the PA territories A and B and the current Israel-Jordan crossings. Note that there are no ways to travel from PA A or B directly to Jordan. (Travel from Aza to Egypt is direct via the Rafah crossing.) Indeed, for the most part there are few contiguous areas in Areas A and B, and no connection between the PA and Hamas’ Aza. The closest PA community to an established crossing is Jericho. There is a Jordanian highway that parallels the Israel-Jordan border.
Until the PA can work with Israel to join its fragmented communities and to develop a secure roadway to Jordan, it must depend on Israel’s good offices to permit transit to Jordan (or to Israeli ports). That depends on the PA ceasing its incitement against Israel — including cessation of its “kill the Jews” indoctrination of school children via texts and tv. So far there has been no indication that this will soon occur.
While PA citizens have been able to work in Israel, the PA prohibits Israeli firms from opening productive business in the “Jew-free” PA territories. Yet, while the PA has proven financial support from both Muslim and non-Muslim benefactors, it has so far been unable to create employment for its citizens. (The same applies to Hamas’ Aza.) A nation must encourage private enterprise to provide employment for its people — and tax revenue for its government. Neither the PA nor Hamas have shown any inclination to entice businesses to set up in their “countries to be.”
Unlike the PA, Hamas’ Aza has access to the sea. It’s problem is that neither Israel nor Egypt trust it to bring in materials for use in projects other than those leading to the murder of Israelis and Egyptians.
Israel, the PA, and Hamas’ Aza have one thing in common: none is rich in natural resources; all must import-manufacture-export as revolving door countries.
THE REALITY
The reality as I see it — and I am not a politician or pie-in-the-sky diplomat – is that statehood for the PA and Hamas’ Aza depends solely on peace with Israel and Egypt. So far, neither Abu Mazen nor Hamas’ leadership has shown any inclination to coexist with Israel and Egypt.
After WW 2 the U.S. rushed to the aid of its allies AND its enemies to help restore battered economies — even at the expense of American businesses. Once the shooting stopped, the rebuilding commenced. For the most part, that approach was successful in keeping the peace (except of course for U.S. manufacturers put out of business by the former enemies’ new, more efficient equipment; it effectively put an end to U.S. steel manufacturing).
Neither the PA nor Aza are ready for nationhood. Unlike Cuba, they have no natural resources (Cuba had sugar and tobacco) and they lack a guaranteed market (Cuba had the Soviet Union). Until they have access to raw materials, the ability to manufacture something from those raw materials, and a way to move the manufactured goods to foreign customers,, they have no way to sustain themselves.
Nationhood for the PA and Aza is guaranteed to end in failure and eventually insurrection against the despotic governments pressing for statehood.
A two or three state solution to the Israel-PA-Aza festering sore will do nothing for the people living in the PA areas or Aza; it’s a pipe dream.
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Yaakov Kirschen's Dry Bones cartoon for 2 March 2017. (This blog entry, "Reality check," originally was published 15 December 2015.)
