I watched a video this morning by way of Israel's independent Channel 2.
Two people were given a sound bite and both said essentially the same things:
1. Mubarak must go.
2. Israel is the enemy.
After 30 years of relative peace between Israel and Egypt the men and women of the street still consider Israel the enemy.
Egypt under Mubarak - indeed under Farouk and all that followed - is like the former Soviet Union under strong dictators; dissent and intolerance were not tolerated unless, of course, it was to the government's benefit.
It was - is - to Egypt's benefit to co-exist with Israel. It's also to Israel's benefit to co-exist with its neighbors that are willing to recognize it (Egypt and Jordan).
The prevailing wisdom is that if Egypt has free elections, democratic elections, extremist Islamists will take control as they did in Gaza and as they did in Iran. These extremists won an election in Algeria; the Algerian army over-ruled the electorate and the incumbent dictator remained in place.
Yoni ben Menachem, described as an expert on Arab afairs and a commentator on Israel Broadcasting Authority's (IBA) daily news in English noted that "Islam and democracy do not go together." The recent "elections" in Iran support his position.
Israel finds itself caught between the hammer and the anvil (a/k/a rock and a hard spot). It knows that Mubarak has lost any popularity he might once have had with Egyptian masses, yet it also knows that if Mubarak goes, co-existance with Egypt is jeopardized. The US, with Hillary at the helm, already is rapidly distancing itself from Mubarak. The problem for the US is that despite its massive aid to Egypt, the average Egyptian sees neither aid nor benefit from the US; it is Israel's friend (and therefore their enemy) and supported Mubarak for lo these 30 years.
What's interesting was another comment by Ben Menachem that Egypt, Iran, and Syria all have different Moslem factions as their majorities. Inter-faction strife is common within Islam so I wonder if the differences will keep Israel's neighbors at bay or will they put aside their differences and aim all their anger at the common enemy, Israel.
In the north, Bashar al-Assad allegedly told the Wall Street Journal that his government is safe from an Egypt-like uprising; he's in touch with his pople. As al-Assad was talking with the WSJ, the Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism's Neon Tommy is reporting (http://tinyurl.com/4eznjrv) that "Opposition groups in Syria have begun organizing a popular protest against incumbent President Bashar al-Assad to take place Saturday, following in the wake of mass uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and elsewhere across the Arab world."
If Ben Menachem's comment that "Islam and democracy do not go together" I have to wonder how much longer several governments in Europe will survive. Turkey's excperiment with democracy seems to be in its final throes.
