Friday, November 25, 2011

Attack Iran?

Some thoughts

Israel apparently is seriously considering an attack on Iran.

No one doubts it would be justified; indeed, Jewish law demands it (If someone comes to kill you, kill him first.) Common sense demands it.

There are those who contend that Israel's neighbors would welcome an Israeli attack on Iran.

They fear that unless they accept Iran's brand of Islamic fanaticism they, too, will be attacked.

The fears probably are justified.

The question that must be asked is: If Israel protects itself and its neighbors by eliminating Iran's ability to wage nuclear war, will Israel's neighbors keep their armies at home or will they consider it a prime opportunity to once again converge on Isabel to drive the Jews into the sea, a threat they have been unable to fulfill since before 1948.

Granted, the Iranians are not Arabs - they make it very clear that Persians (Iranians) are "better" then their fellow Muslims in the Arab states - but because they are Muslims, the Arab states will feel an obligation to defend, if not Arab, then Moslem "honor" by attacking any country that attacks Iran.

Case in point, Saudia.

The kingdom's rulers admit fear of Iran's nuclear capability, but it never even suggests taking military action against the threat. Why not? Saudia has (U.S. provided) weapons and (U.S.) trained military personnel.

The United States remains a "paper tiger," especially with an Arab sympathizer (if not a closet Moslem) in the White House; it lacks the intestinal fortitude to attack Iran and then defend itself against the anticipated "Islamic outrage."

I have two fears.

One, if Israel eliminates Iran's ability to instigate nuclear war, the country still will be in the control of the ayatollahs and the Republican Guard. While Iran's military is hardly "world class," it can be more than just a nuisance; it has surface ships and submarines; it has fairly long-range aircraft, and it has missiles.

It also has a close allies in Lebanon and Gaza; Syria is an unknown.

Two, the area's Moslem states will put aside their delight that Iran no longer poses a nuclear threat against them to join together to punish the tiny nation that eliminated a threat to their well-being. It will be 1948 all over again.

On top of all that, any attack on Iran, if it is to be "surgical," - and I see no reason why it should be - would require more resources than (I think) Israel can justifiably risk.

In addition to the nuclear-related targets, Israel would have to remove the threat of the Iranian military - land, sea, and air - and its ability to retaliate with missiles.

I do not see Iran's Arab neighbors sitting quietly and allowing an opportunity to attack an Israel busy with Iran.